2024 Division Winners Prediction

November 20th, 2023

The 2023 regular season resulted in pretty predictable endings for where teams finished in their division with the exception of a few teams - like the Padres, Cardinals, Mets, Yankees, and Tigers. Since there isn’t a ton of motion in free agency, I’m assuming that most teams will finish around the same place again.

AL East: This is the best division in baseball. The Orioles finished at the top as they defied their odds, having the 2nd lowest payroll in the league. The Yankees had an extremely disappointing season as they finished 4th in the division with the 2nd highest payroll in the league. The Red Sox and the Blue Jays finished close to where I thought they would finish, and I think they’ll take the 4 and 5 spots next season. I think all the AL East teams will only get better in 2024, but I think the Rays will win the division. They had the highest run differential in the American League and have an all-around great team.

AL Central: This is the worst division in baseball. The Minnesota Twins were the only team that finished above .500. The Tigers propelled their way to 2nd place as they got hot late in the 2023 season. They’re an exciting team but they are still pretty young. I’d give it a couple years before I can consider them legit contenders to win the division. The Guardians are a decent team overall, but they really lack power. If they make the right moves in free agency to add some home runs to their lineup, I think they have a shot. The White Sox and Royals will be terrible again, and I think the Twins will win the division, as they have a very well-rounded offense.

AL West: The Astros and Rangers finished at the top with the exact same record, but the Rangers got the last laugh as they were crowned World Series Champions. The Angels will be subpar yet again and the clock of prime Mike Trout is ticking, and they aren’t getting Ohtani back either. The A’s are going to be the worst team in the league, sorry Oakland fans. Don’t forget about the Mariners - they finished just two games behind the Astros and Rangers as their season came down to the wire, in which they unfortunately choked. As much as I want to see them lose, I think the Astros win the division next season.

NL East: This should’ve been the best division in baseball. The Braves were my 2023 World Series pick and they didn’t even make it there, but they have a lot of these guys locked up until the end of the 2020’s. They will be good for a long time. The Phillies have the most energetic offense in the league and terrific pitching, they just periodically got really cold in the season. If they stay consistent, they could easily knock off the Braves. The Mets disappointed and waved the white flag at the trade deadline - they’re going to suck. I think the Nationals finish above the Mets next season. They didn’t look terrible, just very inexperienced. Skip Schumaker won Manager of the Year and the Marlins looked like a pretty good team but realistically weren’t going anywhere, pretty comparable to the Minnesota Twins. They didn’t rehire the best GM they’ve had in years and they will lose some key guys in free agency. I think they finish 3rd again, and the Braves will repeat as the division winner.

NL Central: The Brewers finished 92-70 at the top. The Cubs surprised many when they finished 2nd, but they are likely to lose Bellinger, so I think they will dip to 4th. The Reds should be ready to go. They have a great team who just needs to be consistent. I think they finish 2nd. The Pirates were super hot to start the year but eventually showed their true colors. They will finish last. The Cardinals severely underachieved. I think they’ll make some good moves in free agency by building around Arenado, Goldschmidt, and Walker, and finish in 3rd. The Brewers will win the division again. They aren’t the type of team to blow their opponents out of the water, but they are very hard to put away, and this division isn’t very good.

NL West: The Dodgers were one of three teams to finish the 2023 regular season with 100 or more wins and they should do it again. Kershaw is a free agent, but I don’t think he’s going anywhere. The Diamondbacks had an impressive World Series run as a wild card team, but I don’t think they will make the playoffs again. They had a -15 run differential. They will finish 3rd. The Padres were one of the most disappointing teams this season as well. They will likely lose their best hitter in Juan Soto, the league’s best pitcher in Blake Snell (which also means they’ll lose Gary Sanchez), and one of the league's best relievers in Josh Hader. They are already in debt and I think even though they still have a solid team, they will finish 4th in what will be a kinda-sorta rebuild year. The Rockies are going to be bad for a while, they’ll finish last again. I think the Giants will turn it around and finish 2nd. They had the 3rd best run differential in the National League, and I think that will finally pay off for them. However, none of these teams will compete with the Dodgers, who will finish first again.